The Iran Versus U.S.-Israeli-NATO Threats

[David Edwards]

Herman and Peterson have asked that we introduce their piece with a foot note from their latest analysis, below (link follows)...

Best

Eds


In drafting this analysis, we were astounded over how willing left analysts in the States and elsewhere were to conclude that the official outcome of Iran 's June 12, 2009 presidential election was fraudulent, and the election rigged. Based on what evidence, we wondered? Iran 's June 2005 presidential runoff election between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Akbar Rafsanjani resulted in a 2 to 1 margin of victory for Ahmadinejad, who received 62% to Rafsanjani's 31%. Turning to Iran 's June 2009 presidential election, the official results for the first round were 63% for Ahmadinejad, and 34% for Mir Hussein Mousavi, or slightly less than a 2 to 1 margin of victory for Ahmadinejad. But this result simply could not be true, the objections to Iran 's "stolen" election have maintained. In rejecting the legitimacy of the official results, the leftist Campaign for Peace and Democracy stated that "there is very powerful evidence that either no one emerged with a majority [in the first round], or that Mousavi won outright." (Stephen R. Shalom et al., "Question & Answer on the Iran Crisis," Campaign for Peace and Democracy, July 7, 2009, Point No. 3.) Yet, a poll of Iranian public opinion taken from August 27 - September 10 by WorldPublicOpinion.org on behalf of the Program on International Policy Attitudes found that 55% of Iranians who agreed to take the poll reported that they had voted for Ahmadinejad in June, while 14% reported they had voted for his nearest rival, Mousavi. When also asked "If the same election were to be repeated tomorrow, who would you vote for?," 49% responded Ahmadinejad, and only 8% Mousavi. (Steven Kull et al., Iranian Public on Current Issues, PIPA-WorldPublicOpinion.org, September 19, 2009, 8-9. Also see the accompanying Questionnaire, Q20 and Q23.) Similarly, a pre-election poll in May by three U.S.-based organizations had also found "Ahmadinejad leading [Mousavi] by more than a 2 to 1 margin." (Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty, "The Iranian People Speak," Washington Post, June 15, 2009. For the actual poll, see Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Iran before the June 12, 2009 Presidential Elections, (May 11 - 20), Terror Free Tomorrow, Center for Public Opinion, and New America Foundation, Q27, 52.) Although PIPA-WPO reports that the interview refusal rate for its September 2009 poll was 52%, and that "only in the question on the presidential vote [Q20] were there large numbers of refusals," we believe that the combined results of the Terror Free Tomorrow poll in May, Iran's official election results in June, and the results of the PIPA-WPO poll in September, clearly reinforce each other, just as they reinforce the conclusion that Ahmadinejad was the actual winner in Iran's 2009 presidential election, independently of whether some vote fraud did occur.

http://www.monthlyreview.org/mrzine/hp201009.html